Location forecast
Aurora forecast for Kashgar, Xinjiang, China
Live viewing forecast tuned to your latitude (39.47°N).
🛰️ Global Aurora Observation Terminal
Status: QUIET RIGHT NOWQuiet right now — high latitudes only
Observed geomagnetic activity is low. Only Alaska, northern Canada, Iceland, and northern Scandinavia have a real chance at this moment.
View the global live map and NOAA viewlines for both hemispheres on the Aurora Forecast page
How far the aurora reaches Kashgar
- Geomagnetic latitude
- 31.5° N
- Geographic 39.5° N
- Kp needed to reach here
- only exceptional storms (beyond the usual Kp 9 line)
- Low on the northern horizon first; overhead takes more
- Tonight's line
- 65.2° · 33.7° short
- At Kp 0.7 (NOAA, 12:00 UTC)
Geomagnetic latitude, not geographic, decides how often aurora is seen: Earth's magnetic poles are offset from the geographic ones. Approximate (centered-dipole model, typically within a few degrees); clouds, darkness and moonlight still decide what you see. See the live map and NOAA viewlines for both hemispheres.
Aurora Visibility Score
Kashgar, Xinjiang
At Kp 0.7 the aurora is not expected to reach this latitude, so clear skies and darkness cannot make tonight a good night. The score is held to 15 or less.
Best Viewing
1:00 AM – 4:00 AM
Score breakdown
5 factors · weightedLast Observed Kp
Kp Needed Here
Today's Forecast Peak
OVATION Peak (whole oval)
Geomagnetic Storm Level
Solar Activity
Solar Wind Speed
Observed 15:05 UTC · 8 min ago
IMF Bz
Southward · Observed 15:06 UTC · 7 min ago
Where can you see the aurora right now?
Live NOAA auroral-oval data shows how far south the aurora is currently reaching.
The aurora is currently too far north
📍 Kashgar, Xinjiang, China · Current Kp: 0.7
Aurora is very unlikely at your latitude — it would take an exceptional storm, beyond what this model's visibility boundary reaches at Kp 9.
Current visibility line: ~1773 mi north of you.
Kp measures the disturbance of Earth's magnetic field. Higher Kp generally pushes the auroral oval farther toward lower latitudes.
What this means for Kashgar, Xinjiang, China
Right now, the auroral oval is too far toward the pole to make the aurora likely from Kashgar, Xinjiang, China. A stronger geomagnetic storm would be needed for the aurora to reach this far south.
What else matters
Geographic auroral activity isn't the same as visible aurora — you also need dark skies and clear weather.
Updated live from NOAA SWPC.
Mean visibility probability, northern hemisphere (≥ 45° N)
Peak on grid: 16%
🔍 Forecast Analytics & Empirical Reasoning
- • Planetary Kp Index: 0.7
- • Solar Wind Velocity: 326 km/s
- • Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bz): -0.4 nT (Southward / Open)
- • Proton Density Volume: 2.4 p/cm³
- • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Impact Vector: Ambient Stream / No Recent Impact Detected
Aurora Forecast Confidence: 50%
Solar Flare Forecast Confidence Tier: LOW (Reliability Index: 55% — driven by real NOAA Active Region magnetic complexity, no forecasted percentage exists for flares, only observed classification)
Geomagnetic Storm Confidence: Low (Based on L1 spacecraft to ground-magnetometer verification alignment)
• Factors Influencing Current Confidence: Baseline conditions — no elevated indicators currently active.
3-Day outlook
NOAA Kp forecastBest time & typical odds
Best time to see the northern lights in Kashgar, Xinjiang, China
- Geomagnetic latitude
- 31.3°N
- dipole model, not map latitude
- Kp usually needed
- Rarely visible
- below NOAA's table (40°)
- How often (NOAA average)
- —
- no NOAA figure for this latitude
- Best months
- March, April, September, October
- equinox seasons with real darkness
Kashgar, Xinjiang, China sits at about 31.3°N geomagnetic latitude. NOAA's scale lists 40° (a Kp 9, G5 storm) as the lowest latitude where aurora is typically seen, so sightings here are very rare.
Aurora is usually most active in the hours around local magnetic midnight, which for most places is within a few hours of local midnight. Geomagnetic storms are also more frequent around the March and September equinoxes (the Russell–McPherron effect), which is why those months are listed above, provided the sky gets properly dark.
Month-by-month darkness and Moon
| Month | Darkness (15th) | Nights with dim Moon | Storm season |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 11.2 h | 35% | — |
| February | 10.3 h | 36% | — |
| March | 9.2 h | 29% | Equinox |
| April | 7.6 h | 30% | Equinox |
| May | 6.0 h | 29% | — |
| June | 5.0 h | 27% | — |
| July | 5.5 h | 29% | — |
| August | 6.9 h | 29% | — |
| September | 8.6 h | 33% | Equinox |
| October | 9.9 h | 32% | Equinox |
| November | 10.9 h | 33% | — |
| December | 11.4 h | 35% | — |
Darkness = hours with the Sun more than 18° below the horizon on the 15th. Dim Moon = share of nights in 2026 when the Moon is under 25% lit at local solar midnight.
How often each storm level happens (NOAA)
| Level | Kp | Days per solar cycle |
|---|---|---|
| G1 Minor | 5 | 900 |
| G2 Moderate | 6 | 360 |
| G3 Strong | 7 | 130 |
| G4 Severe | 8 | 60 |
| G5 Extreme | 9 | 4 |
Sources: NOAA SWPC Space Weather Scales (storm levels, latitudes and frequency); IGRF-13 geomagnetic pole; Moon and Sun positions calculated on this site. The Kp-needed figure below Kp 6 is an approximation. Storm counts are long-term averages that cluster around solar maximum, so any single year can differ a lot. This section does not use cloud forecasts; check the live conditions above for tonight.
How the Aurora Visibility Score works and where the data comes from
The score (0-100) adds five factors: aurora strength 40%, cloud cover tonight 25%, darkness 15%, Moon phase 10% and the place's latitude 10%. Aurora strength compares this place with tonight's viewline from NOAA's Kp table, both in geomagnetic latitude, the same line shown in "How far the aurora reaches". Cloud, darkness and moon use the dark hours of tonight in this place's own time zone.
Two limits keep it honest: when the aurora is not expected to reach this latitude, or tonight is almost fully overcast, the score is capped below "Marginal"; and sky conditions can lift it at most 15 points above the aurora factor. It is a planning guide, not a promise: the real oval, local light pollution and the Moon's altitude are not modeled.
- Planetary Kp index (estimated, 3-hour) Observed
- Planetary Kp (0-9): how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is, from ground magnetometers, in 3-hour intervals.
- Updates about every 3 h; shown as delayed after 7 h. Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
- Limit: Each value covers 3 hours and is stamped with the start of its interval, so a current reading is normally up to 3 hours old.
- Provider documentation
- Solar wind plasma (real-time, DSCOVR/ACE/SWFO-L1) Observed
- Speed and density of the solar wind measured by a spacecraft about 1.5 million km sunward of Earth (L1).
- Updates about every 1 min; shown as delayed after 20 min. Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
- Limit: It reaches Earth roughly 30-60 minutes later, and only a southward Bz lets it couple strongly with Earth's field.
- Provider documentation
- Interplanetary magnetic field (Bz, Bt) Observed
- Direction and strength of the magnetic field carried by the solar wind. Bz below zero (southward) favours aurora.
- Updates about every 1 min; shown as delayed after 20 min. Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
- Limit: Bz can flip within minutes; one reading is not a forecast.
- Provider documentation
- OVATION Prime aurora forecast (model) Modeled
- NOAA's OVATION Prime model of how likely aurora is at each point of the oval about 30-90 minutes ahead.
- Updates about every 5 min; shown as delayed after 30 min. Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (OVATION Prime model).
- Limit: The number shown for the whole oval is its maximum, which is always high near the poles. It is not the chance of seeing aurora at your location.
- Provider documentation
- 3-day geomagnetic forecast Modeled
- NOAA forecasters' 3-day outlook for geomagnetic activity.
- Updates about every 6 h; shown as delayed after 12 h. Source: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
- Limit: A forecast issued by people and models; it can be wrong, and it is never shown as an observation.
- Provider documentation
- Open-Meteo (cloud, temperature, sunrise/sunset) Observed + forecast
- Cloud cover, temperature and the sunrise and sunset used for the local viewing window.
- Updates about every 1 h; shown as delayed after 3 h. Source: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).
- Limit: Cloud cover is a model forecast for a grid cell, not a sky camera; it can differ from the sky above you.
- Provider documentation
- MET Norway Locationforecast Observed + forecast
- Backup weather source used when Open-Meteo does not answer.
- Updates about every 1 h; shown as delayed after 3 h. Source: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0).
- Limit: Does not report visibility; that field is left blank rather than guessed.
- Provider documentation
What else is visible in Kashgar, Xinjiang, China?
Aurora is just one part of tonight's sky. See the Moon phase, visible planets, and darkness window for Kashgar, Xinjiang, China tonight.
Nearby aurora forecasts
Live aurora conditions for locations near Kashgar, Xinjiang, China.
Explore more
🌌 Broader Cosmic Context
🪐 Related Space Phenomena & Objects
Tonight's Sky Over Kashgar, Xinjiang, China
Right now, skywatchers near Kashgar, Xinjiang, China are tracking real-time space weather conditions overhead.
Current Environmental Conditions
The current planetary Kp index reads 0.7, with real-time cloud cover at 58% and the Moon at 13% illumination (Waning Crescent).
Local Forecast Summary
Of the next 72 hours in the live forecast, 33 show cloud cover under 30% — a mixed outlook, so it's worth checking back closer to your viewing window.
Why This Happens
With Kp currently at 0.7, Earth's magnetosphere is in a relatively calm state — the aurora oval sits closer to the poles than it does during active storms.
Observation & Gear Tips
With cloud cover this high, a higher-elevation spot outside the local cloud deck — or simply waiting for a clearer night — will make a real difference.
Keep Exploring
Conditions like these change by the hour — check back for updated real-time readings, or explore related space weather data for Kashgar, Xinjiang, China using the links below.