Location forecast
Aurora forecast for Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey
Live viewing forecast tuned to your latitude (40.79°N).
🛰️ Global Aurora Observation Terminal
Status: NO ACTIVITY EXPECTEDQuiet — high latitudes only
Geomagnetic field is calm. Only Alaska, northern Canada, Iceland, and northern Scandinavia have a real chance right now.
Aurora Visibility Score
Guergentepe, Ordu
Best Viewing
1:00 AM – 4:00 AM
Score breakdown
5 factors · weightedCurrent Kp
Kp Needed Here
Today's Forecast Peak
OVATION Peak
Geomagnetic Storm Level
Solar Activity
Solar Wind Speed
IMF Bz
Northward
Where can you see the aurora right now?
Live NOAA auroral-oval data shows how far south the aurora is currently reaching.
The aurora is currently too far north
📍 Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey · Current Kp: 1.7
Aurora is very unlikely at your latitude — even the strongest storms rarely reach this close to the equator.
Current visibility line: ~1539 mi north of you.
Kp measures the disturbance of Earth's magnetic field. Higher Kp generally pushes the auroral oval farther toward lower latitudes.
What this means for Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey
Right now, the auroral oval is too far toward the pole to make the aurora likely from Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey. A stronger geomagnetic storm would be needed for the aurora to reach this far south.
What else matters
Geographic auroral activity isn't the same as visible aurora — you also need dark skies and clear weather.
Updated live from NOAA SWPC.
Mean visibility probability, northern hemisphere (≥ 45° N)
Peak on grid: 14%
🔍 Forecast Analytics & Empirical Reasoning
- • Planetary Kp Index: 1.7
- • Solar Wind Velocity: 500 km/s
- • Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bz): 0.9 nT (Northward / Closed)
- • Proton Density Volume: 0.4 p/cm³
- • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Impact Vector: Ambient Stream / No Recent Impact Detected
Aurora Forecast Confidence: 65%
Solar Flare Forecast Confidence Tier: LOW (Reliability Index: 55% — driven by real NOAA Active Region magnetic complexity, no forecasted percentage exists for flares, only observed classification)
Geomagnetic Storm Confidence: Low (Based on L1 spacecraft to ground-magnetometer verification alignment)
• Factors Influencing Current Confidence: Calculated based on elevated solar wind speed.
3-Day outlook
NOAA Kp forecastBest time & typical odds
Best time to see the northern lights in Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey
- Geomagnetic latitude
- 37.0°N
- dipole model, not map latitude
- Kp usually needed
- Rarely visible
- below NOAA's table (40°)
- How often (NOAA average)
- —
- no NOAA figure for this latitude
- Best months
- March, April, September, October
- equinox seasons with real darkness
Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey sits at about 37.0°N geomagnetic latitude. NOAA's scale lists 40° (a Kp 9, G5 storm) as the lowest latitude where aurora is typically seen, so sightings here are very rare.
Aurora is usually most active in the hours around local magnetic midnight, which for most places is within a few hours of local midnight. Geomagnetic storms are also more frequent around the March and September equinoxes (the Russell–McPherron effect), which is why those months are listed above, provided the sky gets properly dark.
Month-by-month darkness and Moon
| Month | Darkness (15th) | Nights with dim Moon | Storm season |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 11.2 h | 32% | — |
| February | 10.3 h | 36% | — |
| March | 9.1 h | 29% | Equinox |
| April | 7.5 h | 30% | Equinox |
| May | 5.8 h | 29% | — |
| June | 4.7 h | 30% | — |
| July | 5.2 h | 29% | — |
| August | 6.8 h | 29% | — |
| September | 8.5 h | 33% | Equinox |
| October | 9.9 h | 32% | Equinox |
| November | 11.0 h | 33% | — |
| December | 11.4 h | 35% | — |
Darkness = hours with the Sun more than 18° below the horizon on the 15th. Dim Moon = share of nights in 2026 when the Moon is under 25% lit at local solar midnight.
How often each storm level happens (NOAA)
| Level | Kp | Days per solar cycle |
|---|---|---|
| G1 Minor | 5 | 900 |
| G2 Moderate | 6 | 360 |
| G3 Strong | 7 | 130 |
| G4 Severe | 8 | 60 |
| G5 Extreme | 9 | 4 |
Sources: NOAA SWPC Space Weather Scales (storm levels, latitudes and frequency); IGRF-13 geomagnetic pole; Moon and Sun positions calculated on this site. The Kp-needed figure below Kp 6 is an approximation. Storm counts are long-term averages that cluster around solar maximum, so any single year can differ a lot. This section does not use cloud forecasts; check the live conditions above for tonight.
What else is visible in Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey?
Aurora is just one part of tonight's sky. See the Moon phase, visible planets, and darkness window for Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey tonight.
Nearby aurora forecasts
Live aurora conditions for locations near Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey.
Explore more
🌌 Broader Cosmic Context
🪐 Related Space Phenomena & Objects
Tonight's Sky Over Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey
Here's what's actually happening above Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey tonight, based on live satellite telemetry.
Current Environmental Conditions
The current planetary Kp index reads 1.7, with real-time cloud cover at 100% and the Moon at 2% illumination (Waxing Crescent).
Local Forecast Summary
Of the next 48 hours in the live forecast, 14 show cloud cover under 30% — a mixed outlook, so it's worth checking back closer to your viewing window.
Why This Happens
With Kp currently at 1.7, Earth's magnetosphere is in a relatively calm state — the aurora oval sits closer to the poles than it does during active storms.
Observation & Gear Tips
With cloud cover this high, a higher-elevation spot outside the local cloud deck — or simply waiting for a clearer night — will make a real difference.
Keep Exploring
Conditions like these change by the hour — check back for updated real-time readings, or explore related space weather data for Guergentepe, Ordu, Turkey using the links below.