Auroral Oval

Auroras don't appear at the poles themselves but in a glowing ring around each magnetic pole. During storms the ring brightens and swells toward the equator — that expansion is what lets people far from the Arctic see the lights.

The ovals map the footprint of magnetospheric particle precipitation, typically spanning 60–75° magnetic latitude, displaced toward the nightside. Their equatorward boundary expands with geomagnetic activity, correlating with the Kp index.

Your distance from the oval sets the Kp you need. Under it, auroras are routine; south of it, you wait for storms to bring the oval to you.